Why Did Housing Take a Tumble?

This question has been rehashed by the talking heads on T.V. time and time again. We all have our theories as to why it happened and who are the villians. Some say it was the fault of the banks. Some say it was the predatory lenders. Some say it was investors buying up property causing inflated values. Others say that it was the "perfect storm."

According to a study recently released by the Mortgage Bankers Association and conducted by the University of Maryland, poor data, incomplete performance metrics, short-term focus, and unrealistic optimism among senior business managers contributed to the housing downturn. The study analyzed the risk management processes employed by mortgage lenders leading up to the housing crisis and discusses lessons learned for future risk managers.

Key findings from the study include: Subprime loan underwriting criteria expanded between 1999 and 2006 and a false sense of security with new products originated prior to 2007 occurred as a result of better than average economic conditions.

Hmmm. Sounds like a perfect storm and few heeded the warnings because so many were getting what they wanted - finally! Investors were making money. First-time homeowners were getting a home for no downpayment, with expectations that in a few years, they could sell that starter home and make money that they could then put down on a BETTER home. Lenders were of course making money.

What those of us on the ground saw happening during those good 'ol days were too many buyers risking basically only their credit scores for those expectations because they had no "skin in the game." No money of their own was sunk into their investment. Human nature requires some accountability, without which it is that much easier to walk away and leave the mess to someone else: you and I. The homes that these buyers left behind were indeed messes. Browned, unkempt landscapes and ill-used interiors needing to be labled, "mild fixer."

Of course, caught up in the storm were very responsible homeowners who did manage to refinance and hang on for as long as they could to their very well maintained and loved homes. A lost job or scarce contracts for the self-employed put these homeowners in the very same position as the risky buyers, and the stigma of foreclosure. It has been painful to watch up close.

A one-size-fits-all bandaid cannot work for even these two scenarios. That is why I am pleased that California has passed a bill to protect responsible homeowners from having to pay income tax on their forgiven debt! These homeowners should not be lumped into the same box as the risky buyer who easily walked away from a mess.

A perfect storm does best describe the housing downturn. And in any storm of life, we must learn something as individuals and as a community and as a State. You can't get something for nothing. If you have, beware of the strings attached.

To obtain a copy of the report, please visit the RIHA Web site at http://www.housingamerica.org.

So, Should You Buy or Should You Rent?

Awhile back I posted a question on my Facebook page asking what the pros and cons were about buying a home and renting a home. Some of the pros of renting were that repairs would be made by the landlord and renters don't have to pay that dreaded property tax bill!

Some of the cons of renting: All landlords don't jump to make needed repairs and some tenants, afraid that their rent will be raised, won't ask! Also, you never know when you may have to move should the landlord need to sell his property.

Well, it turns out that financially speaking, the cost gap has narrowed. Affordable home prices and low interest rates have created an ideal time for many diehard renters to purchase homes, and now a new week-long look at homeownership confirms it.

A national study, conducted for The Associated Press, shows that the difference between monthly rents and mortgage payments is at its lowest level in nearly 20 years!

The analysis of 45 metro areas found the difference between the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home and the median rent has declined to $256. In some areas, the difference is as low as $100, according to the study. The last time the price gap was that close was in 1993, when it decreased to $264!

The study, conducted by Marcus & Milichap Real Estate Investment Services, used median prices for the last three months of 2009 and calculated mortgage payments by assuming a 10-percent down payment and a 30-year fixed loan at 5.07 percent. It also assumed borrowers paid for private mortgage insurance and didn’t include repair costs and tax benefits.

And don't forget, owning a home does have significant tax benefits, including deductions for those dreaded property taxes and loan interest. Homeowners also can enjoy building equity and creating a means of forced savings as they pay down the principal on the home.

If you are a renter and think you might want to wade in to a home purchase, you can prepare by ensuring your credit reports are up to date and save for a down payment of at least 20 percent, or at least enough to pay for your closing costs.

Although home buyers should not focus solely on future home price appreciation, according to data collected by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) over the last 40 years, homeowners who purchase a median-priced house, live in it for at least five years, and sell it at the then-current median price, have averaged an annual rate of return of more than 11 percent.

As a long-term homeowner, in my opinion, owning our home has rewards that far outweigh any cons. Planting a tree and knowing that more than likely we will be here to see it get bigger each year! Christmas dinners and our traditional Easter egg hunts. Yes, it is good, and Lord willing, will continue to be so.

Housing Affordability Best in Four Years!!*

Some brave financial analysts are coming out of the gloom closet. The chief economist for the Cleveland-based bank National City Corp (NCC, Fortune 500), Richard DeKaser, said that "housing valuations are almost back to long-term norms." 'Valuation' is defined as the difference between what a home should cost and its actual price. He said that current affordability is *"the best in the past four years." Three hundred and thirty housing markets were surveyed and showed price declines and improved affordability during the last three months of 2007.

DeKaser did caution that home prices could fall even further. Remember. this is nationwide, so price declines and hitting bottom will differ widely. As in all market fluctuations, more desirable areas will bottom out before the less desirable areas. In our San Diego market, it is even possible that we will see the bottom of the lower-priced market hit before the luxury market, which took longer to respond to the pricing adjustments.

Local agents are currently scrambling to field the multiple offers on the attractively priced and better-maintained short-sale and bank-owned properties. It is anybody's guess how long it will take to inch up to the properly priced, non-foreclosed homes in higher price ranges.

DeKaser points out that the biggest gains in affordability occurred in our own state of California (as well as Michigan and Florida). These areas have also been some of the hardest hit by foreclosures. The best bargains currently, according to the survey, are in Louisiana and Texas, where homes are undervalued by approximately 30%!

If you or anyone you know would like to look for investment property in these areas, we can connect you with a REALTOR you can trust who will know that market inside and out.