REAL ESTATE: Finally a Good Investment?

The housing market still looks pretty bleak: There were a record one million foreclosures last year, home prices are still falling in many regions and the number of "underwater" properties is at a record high.

And things don't look much better in other areas of real estate. The number of construction jobs continues to decline, even as other parts of the economy have added jobs. And mortgage rates have moved higher as long-term Treasury yields have backed up during the past few months.

Basically, the real estate market remains a mess.

Real estate encompasses a wide range of markets – homes, apartments, hospitals, office buildings, strip malls, dormitories and other properties. But for our purposes, let's focus on residential real estate, or homes. Here are four reasons to think residential real estate might represent a bargain – with one big caveat.

Everyone hates homes.

Homes are probably the most hated asset class in the country. That's what happens when a bubble bursts. People avoid thinking about the value of their home. Sellers moan about no offers, buyers gripe about impossible lending requirements.

Hatred of an asset is often the precursor to contrarian interest, and being contrarian is at the heart of many investment strategies. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Mr. Buffett backed that idea when he invested in the stock market in the teeth of the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009.

Of course, being contrarian for its own sake isn't wise investing. Gold was hated for years ("dead money") before it recently became an attractive asset class. Still, a lot of smart ideas begin with the question: What does everyone hate?

Smart people are buying real estate.

This cohort is led by John Paulson, the hedge-fund manager who made $20 billion betting against the housing bubble. Last fall he said in a speech: "If you don't own a home buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home."

Why is Mr. Paulson so adamant? Because he believes long-term interest rates are not going to get much lower. They have, in fact, risen since he gave that speech, but they remain remarkably low by historic standards. Low rates and the expectation that home prices will rise is his argument. For his part, Mr. Buffett has predicted the housing market will bottom this year.

Real estate performs well during inflation.

There's no inflation these days, but when buying a home one should take a longer view. And the longer view shows that the economy has enjoyed a disinflationary period since the early 1980s. A number of folks think that cycle is slowly reversing itself.

If that's the case, then convention would argue for holding assets that do well in an inflationary environment. That includes Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, commodities and real estate. Remember that during the stagflation nightmare of the 1970s, real estate had a strong run.

Inflation isn't a significant issue in the U.S., but it's a growing problem elsewhere. China and India have taken steps to fight inflation, the euro zone is getting flickers of inflation and the U.K. has had oddly higher prices (above 3%) for an extended period of time. If the cycle is slowly turning, real estate makes more sense.

Demand may be coming back.

Supply isn't as out of whack as it used to be. At the end of November, home builders reported 197,000 new homes on the market, the lowest level since 1968, according to Yardeni Research. The National Association of Realtors reports that the inventory of existing homes for sale fell 4% to 3.71 million homes, which represents a 9.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.5-month supply in October.

Those aren't pretty numbers, of course, but they are moving in the correct direction. And that may be a reason that many home builder stocks, such as KB Home ( KBH: 14.79*, -0.19, -1.26% ) , Hovnanian ( HOV: 4.45*, -0.06, -1.33% ) , Pulte ( PHA: 24.06*, +0.02, +0.08% ) and Toll Brothers ( TOL: 20.40*, -0.30, -1.44% ) , have come off their lows in the past several weeks.

It's all comes down to jobs. There are a zillion caveats to any positive home thesis, but the big one is unemployment. If the economy is not creating jobs, the chance of a rebound in housing is diminished. It's hard to buy a home without a job, and folks who aren't working don't want to take long-term risks.

The job market is still struggling and the debate is hot about when it will recover. Optimists see recovery this year. Pessimists see pain for several years ahead. How this X factor gets resolved will say a great deal about whether housing will rebound.

Taken from an article on SmartMoney.com. Read more: 4 Reasons to Buy a Home Now - SmartMoney.com http://www.smartmoney.com/personal-finance/real-estate/-1295050347411/#ixzz1BhVVZ0hR

Home Sellers and Landlords

If you are planning to do some renovation to your home before you sell, or if you are a Landlord, and your property was built before 1978, it may pay you to read on.

Starting April 22, renovations that disturb lead-based paint in older homes and child-occupied facilities must now generally comply with the Lead-Based Paint Renovation Rule of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Under the newly implemented rule, renovators of target housing built before 1978 must now be trained and EPA-certified to perform safe work practices to prevent lead contamination. Landlord's renovating their properties must deliver EPA's lead renovation pamphlet to their tenant within 60 days before a project begins (and, if mailed, at least seven days before a project begins). Renovators must also obtain the tenant's signed acknowledgment of receipt or substitute documentation as specified.

The EPA issued this rule in 2008, but delayed implementation until now. The rule generally applies to building contractors, handymen, residential landlords, property managers, and anyone else who is paid to perform renovations or to direct workers to perform renovations as specified. The lead renovation rule does not apply to homeowners renovating the homes they live in. However, sellers of target housing must, among other things, disclose to their buyers any known lead-based paint and lead-based paint hazards (C.A.R. Form FLD). Home buyers today are certainly more environmentally aware than ever, so when in doubt, it always pays to seek the advice of an informed real estate professional.

Renovation work covered by the lead renovation rule is defined as a modification of an existing structure that disturbs a painted surface, such as surface restoration or surface preparation activity. Excluded are minor repair and maintenance activities that disrupt up to 6 square feet of interior painted surface or 20 square feet of exterior painted surface. Demolitions and window replacements are not considered minor repairs.

If you need more information about the lead renovation rule, just email me and I will send you a legal article entitled Federal Lead-Based Paint Renovation Rule. You can also go to the EPA's Renovation, Repair and Painting webpage which includes the new requirements, pamphlets, and other resources. To locate an EPA-certified renovation firm contact me for a company nearest you, or go to http://cfpub.epa.gov/flpp/searchrrp_firm.htm.

Senate Bail-Out Bill - What the New York Times Says About It

As housing bill evolves, crisis grows deeper

Most media loves really bad news. It's always sold papers and always will! Here is their current doomsday message about the Housing Bill:

"The mortgage rescue plan currently before Congress, which was designed to help only about 400,000 of the 2.6 million homeowners needing assistance at the time it was created, may fall far short of bailing out the thousands of additional Americans each month who join the ranks of mortgage borrowers in need thanks to an increasingly troubled economy, analysts say."

Let's try to make some sense out of this for us every-day folks:

• The Senate is expected to consider a bailout bill after the July 4 recess. That bill would allow banks and borrowers to refinance troubled adjustable-rate mortgages into 30-year fixed-rate loans backed by the government. Lenders would lower each loan amount to 85 percent of its current value while borrowers would pay a 1.5 percent annual mortgage insurance premium, and any gain in value would be shared when a home is sold.
• An estimated nine million homeowners currently owe more than the market value of their home. To qualify, borrowers would have to demonstrate that they can’t afford their current mortgage payment but have the financial wherewithal to make payments on a new loan with new terms.
• Critics of the proposal suggest that the real estate market will correct itself without Congressional intervention, and that a weak economy, rising unemployment and higher mortgage interest rates could derail the usefulness of the program, which would be managed by the Federal Housing Administration and funded by the mortgage insurance fees, a 3 percent lender fee, and a tax on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

To read the full story, please click here:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/washington/29housing.html?_r=1&th=&adxnnl=1&emc=th&adxnnlx=1214794471-1wPUSlKP4CUyMb8ECvTjAg&oref=slogin

Historically the United States has had its good economic times and its not so good economic times. This too will pass, and many of us will be stronger for it, though not wealthier! Most of our great-grandparents would roll over in their graves to see the spending habits of our generation, and this current real estate climate is a giant wake-up call for many who have thought of home equity as an ATM machine.

Panic and fear will drive the economy down fast. It is important to realize that this, too, will pass. It is time to revert to thrifty economizing as our grandparents and even our parents did. We will all get through this!

Housing Affordability Best in Four Years!!*

Some brave financial analysts are coming out of the gloom closet. The chief economist for the Cleveland-based bank National City Corp (NCC, Fortune 500), Richard DeKaser, said that "housing valuations are almost back to long-term norms." 'Valuation' is defined as the difference between what a home should cost and its actual price. He said that current affordability is *"the best in the past four years." Three hundred and thirty housing markets were surveyed and showed price declines and improved affordability during the last three months of 2007.

DeKaser did caution that home prices could fall even further. Remember. this is nationwide, so price declines and hitting bottom will differ widely. As in all market fluctuations, more desirable areas will bottom out before the less desirable areas. In our San Diego market, it is even possible that we will see the bottom of the lower-priced market hit before the luxury market, which took longer to respond to the pricing adjustments.

Local agents are currently scrambling to field the multiple offers on the attractively priced and better-maintained short-sale and bank-owned properties. It is anybody's guess how long it will take to inch up to the properly priced, non-foreclosed homes in higher price ranges.

DeKaser points out that the biggest gains in affordability occurred in our own state of California (as well as Michigan and Florida). These areas have also been some of the hardest hit by foreclosures. The best bargains currently, according to the survey, are in Louisiana and Texas, where homes are undervalued by approximately 30%!

If you or anyone you know would like to look for investment property in these areas, we can connect you with a REALTOR you can trust who will know that market inside and out.

Happy Days Are Here Again!

Bloomberg.com posted the news that Consumer Confidence fell to a 5-year low and home prices as measured by the S&P/C-S Index experienced their greatest decline since at least 2001. San Diego experienced a year-over-year decline of 19.2% Will they drop further? Some say yes; some say maybe; some say no.

So, is anyone out there buying or are they all waiting for more declines in prices? Well, SOMEBODY is buying because we have put in countless offers for buyers and EVERY SINGLE ONE has been joined by multiple offers! This holds true for bank-owned and for short sales. (Most sellers who are not selling short or facing foreclosure are still priced out of the market and seem to be holding out hoping for that one buyer to fall in love and buy their home rather than go through the hassle of buying foreclosures and short sales.)

If you are a buyer who is looking for a long-term investment, waiting for the bottom is risky. Once we KNOW we've hit "bottom," the prices will already have begun to rise. Better to shop now while inventory is up and there are less buyers hitting the market. Good luck!

And the Survey Said...!

Standard & Poor's announced: Shiller home price index for 20 cities fell a record 2.4 percent between December and January and has dropped a record 10.7 percent from the same period a year ago, according to January figures released Tuesday. Of the 20 cities studied, all posted declines year-over-year except Charlotte, N.C., which rose 1.8 percent. All 20 cities posted month-to-month declines.

What does that mean to you?


National surveys such as these are useful in measuring broad macroeconomic trends but are of marginal value to the individual consumer in the process of buying or selling a home. That’s because real estate prices are set at the local level and can vary dramatically from market to market, neighborhood to neighborhood, and home to home based on a variety of factors.

NAR on Tuesday reported an increase in sales nationally for the first time in seven months. This gain is encouraging because increases in sales were not expected until the second half of the year.

According to a C.A.R. report, February sales volume in California was up 9.5 percent compared with January, marking the fourth month in a row that figure inched higher

In the market here in East County, falling prices have recently stimulated sales as buyers (including us!) take advantage of the downturn. As inventories of homes are drawn down, prices should begin to stabilize.

The Wilmers Jump In!

We decided to buy a house for an investment! Sure, prices may inch lower, but the buys out there appeared too good for us to pass up. We have been shopping homes for our children since January in the $300K to $400K range. There are a lot to choose from here in East County, most of which are short sales and a few which are bank owned (i.e., already foreclosed). What we found was that every house - without fail, that the four of us liked and decided to put in an offer to purchase, received multiple offers! Hmmm.... We thought no one was buying real estate? WRONG! The under $400K market is heating up, and the under $350K market is HOT. Now, not every home under $400K is getting snatched up. Buyers are definitely shopping location. If the home is in a good location and is priced below comparables, it is selling.

The catch, of course, is that these properties need help. We were looking for what we called a "screamin' deal." The screamin' deals are, well, messy! The homes need TLC. Paint, flooring and landscape are necessary to appeal to this market's pickier buyer or renter, depending on the investor's plan. We aren't positive what we will do with our investment yet. If we can make a profit, we will resell it after we get it spiffed up. If prices have dropped lower at that time, we know we can rent it and cover our costs because it is in a great neighborhood.

We are excited about this new venture for us! We have been wanting to invest in real estate for many years but prices have kept us from taking the plunge, other than owning our own home. We believe that now is the time. We'll keep you posted on the results.